By Tim Ryan
The F-35 file is heating up courtesy of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump, as Esprit de Corps readers known, has been threatening to annex Canada and destroy our economy.
The Liberal government has been mobilizing its response to the increasingly erratic U.S. president and American efforts to undercut Canada’s sovereignty.
One of those potential responses could mean the end of Canada’s F-35 program or at least a significant scaling back of that military acquisition.
The Liberal government announced Jan. 9, 2023 that it would purchase 88 F-35s in a project that will cost $19 billion. National Defence officials also confirmed the full life-cycle cost for the F-35 project would eventually tally $70 billion.
Canada does not expect to receive its first F-35 fighter jet until 2026. Full operational capability for Canada’s F-35s is set for around 2032.
The first 16 fighter jets have been paid for.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney noted on March 17 at a news conference in London, England that after that, all options are open. “The fact is that under the contract, as you may know, that after a certain number of purchases, then we have options on subsequent aircraft,” he said.
“Given the geopolitical environment, given the fact that there are options, given the need for value for money, given the possibility of having substantial production of alternative aircraft in Canada – as opposed to sending, as we have been, on average, 80 cents of every dollar to the United States – it’s prudent and in the interest of Canada to review those options,” Carney added.
“Full disclosure: this is one of the discussions I had both in Paris and in the U.K.,” he said. “Given our security posture in Europe, given potential steps in Ukraine, given our own security needs, that diversification of our suppliers in a way that ensures that as much as possible of that production resides in Canada and benefits Canadians in multiple ways, is a prudent thing to do.”
Defence Minister Bill Blair. Blair also revealed March 14 to CBC that Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the F-35 and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers.
Blair says the focus is on what is best for Canadian interests and the defence of country. He noted that conversation is taking place inside the Canadian Forces. "It was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives — whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35," Blair told host CBC David Cochrane.
"The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada," Blair said.
That sounds like there may be interest in the Gripen fighter jet from Saab. As part of its pitch, Saab had offered to build the jets in Canada. The F-35, in contrast, is built in the U.S.
In the fighter jet competition that Canada held several years ago, the Gripen scored higher points when it came to industrial benefits for domestic industry. The Gripen also scored higher than the F-35 in long-term maintenance costs.
But Royal Canadian Air Force leaders had wanted the F-35 since the aircraft was first developed and their view prevailed. (Some analysts have suggested the procurement was biased.)
Now with the U.S. becoming the main threat to Canada’s sovereignty, the RCAF support for the F-35 no longer makes sense.
But questions remain. Is the review announced by Bill Blair going to have any real substance? Blair has declined to release a timeline for the exercise, which is not a good sign.
Blair, himself, is considered a weak minister who has not challenged the status quo. And he has downplayed the Trump threat. “Clearly, he’s joking,” Blair said Dec. 10 when Trump started in on his push to make Canada the 51st state.
Even as late as Feb. 12, 2025, Blair was dismissing Trump’s threats as rhetoric. “We’ve assured all of our allies we’re prepared to stand up for our country,” Blair stated. “I do not believe that represents a real threat to us.”
The situation has obviously changed.
Equally disturbing is that Blair has also entrusted the F-35 review to the Canadian Forces/RCAF leadership, the same organizations that lobbied for the stealth fighter jet in the first place. Isn’t that like leaving the fox in charge of the hen house?
Some analysts are suggesting the review is simply a public relations exercise to placate angry Canadians who are questioning why their hard-earned tax dollars are going to support American high-tech aerospace jobs.
But it could be that Carney wants to send a strong message to the Americans by dumping the F-35.
If so, it would just be yet another twist in the controversial F-35 saga in Canada. The Liberal government originally committed funding to the development of the aircraft, but did not actually commit to purchasing the stealth fighter. When the Conservative government took over they pushed the F-35 option.
At a high-profile news conference in 2010, featuring then-defence minister Peter Mackay sitting in the cockpit of a F-35 mock-up, the Stephen Harper government announced it was purchasing the plane. But increasing costs and technical problems dogged the F-35 program. In a 2012 interview with CBC, Conservative MP Chris Alexander claimed the government had never said it would buy F-35s. But Alexander claims were dismissed and roundly mocked as footage existed clearly showing the Conservatives stating they were buying the aircraft. In the end, Alexander seemed to only succeed in undercutting his own credibility.
During the 2015 election campaign, Justin Trudeau vowed his government would never purchase the F-35. As prime minister, Trudeau continued to point out the Canadian military had no need for the F-35 and he blamed the Conservatives for agreeing to purchase a problem-plagued fighter jet, the Ottawa Citizen reported. But, with the 2023 announcement, the Liberals not only committed to the acquisition, but also increased the number of jets to be bought to 88 from the 65 the Conservatives had wanted, the newspaper added.
With Canada entering an election shortly, will the so-called review just be another paper exercise?
Reporting by Bloomberg News on March 17 also raised another issue—what are the consequences of dropping the F-35?
“Canceling the F-35s might be a good idea, but we need to think about it,” Bombardier Chief Executive Officer Eric Martel told a business audience in Montreal. “We have contracts with the Pentagon. Will there be reciprocity there?”
(Martel was thinking of his own firm, which has contracts with the Americans, but other Canadian firms are also in the same boat).
