By Scott Taylor
There is no denying that we are living in frightening times. From day one of his second term in office, US President Donald J. Trump has been doing his utmost to monger those fears with all kinds of outlandish threats.
Given that Trump holds the reins of the world's greatest super-power, even his most glib and offhand threats therefore need to be addressed with diplomacy and tact. They also need to be addressed with some hard truths.
Namely, the majority of the 'facts' upon which Trump is relying to justify his threats are either exaggerated, misleading or straight up lies.
Last Thursday Trump reiterated his threat to slap a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, as early as Feb. 1. The justification Trump uses for these steep tariffs is his wild claim that Canada currently enjoys a $200 to $250 billion (USD) trade surplus with the US.
In response to Trump's claim, TD Bank economists released their own study which illustrates that the current US trade deficit is actually only $45 billion(USD). That is still a sizeable difference. But what the TD economists highlight is the fact that all of that deficit is due to the US purchasing of Canadian energy in the form of oil and gas.
If one removes energy purchases from the equation that deficit is reversed. In terms of non-energy trade the US enjoys a nearly $60 billion (USD) trade surplus with Canada.
Following his inauguration, Trump also claimed that Canada "treats the US poorly" through the mismanagement of our shared border. To elaborate on his point Trump directly blamed Canada for the death of 300,000 American citizens. According to Trump those deaths were the result of fentanyl overdoses, due to the drug's illegal importation across the Canadian border.
This would be startling news to most Canadians, and Americans if only it were true. It is not.
To put Trump's exaggerated claim into perspective we can turn to a recent US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) report. According to the DEA regarding the illegal importation of fentanyl, China, Mexico and India (in that descending order) are the primary sources of the fentanyl flow into the US. Canada was not even mentioned in that DEA chart.
Sadly, Trump's statistic of 300,000 fentanyl related deaths since the opioid crisis began in 2010 is accurate. However to blame Canada for the entire tragedy defies all logic.
Even before he was inaugurated, Trump began threatening to turn Canada into the 51st State and he went so far as to endorse hockey legend Wayne Gretzky to be Canada's next 'Governor'. To achieve this aim Trump told reporters that military force would not be necessary and that instead he will use economic pressure to force Canada into submission.
That must have come as a relief to Canada's Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan as she would have been hard pressed to come up with a list of options for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the event that Trump suggested a military invasion. But I digress.
One nation that is facing the reality of a US invasion is Panama. Trump has announced his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal for the US and in direct response to a reporter's question, he did not rule out the use of military force to achieve that goal.
Trump's justification for violating the rules-based-international-order is that the Chinese government is now operating the Panama Canal. The truth is that way back in 1996 Panama contracted a Hong Kong based company - Hutchison-Whampoa - to operate two ports along the canal on behalf of the Panamanian government.
In 1999 the US State Department responded to Panama's awarding of the contract to Hutchison-Whampoa. The US officials concluded after extensive research that they had “not uncovered any evidence to support a conclusion that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be in a position to control canal operations”.
Last Wednesday, in response to Trump's allegation, Mao Ning, the PRC's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, clarified: “China does not participate in the management and operation of the canal and has never interfered in the affairs of the canal.”
For the record, any future Trump invasion of Panama already has a foothold. The US still have over 4,000 military personnel stationed in Panama at a US Navy repair facility on the Pacific coast.
Trump also dramatically claimed that the US should never have given up the Panama canal because "38,000 Americans" died building it. That number is a very bold exaggeration to say the least. The entire death toll during the US construction phase was 5,609 but of these 4290 killed were mostly poorly-paid labourers from the Caribbean islands.
Trump also says the US needs to obtain Greenland as it is strategically important for the defence of the USA. Trump questioned whether Denmark, a NATO ally, actually has any legal claim to the territory, and he also did not rule out using military force to achieve his goal.
Yet the US already have a military base in Greenland as part of a defence agreement forced upon the Danish dating back to the Second World War. After Germany occupied Denmark in 1940 the Americans pressured Henrik Kauffmann, the Danish Ambassador in Washington DC, to allow the US to station troops in Greenland "in the name of the King". The war-time Danish government in Copenhagen went apoplectic at this news and they tried Kauffmann in absentia, for 'treason'. After the Second World War Denmark did ratify the Kauffmann agreement.
The Canadian Armed Forces subsequently cooperated with the US Air Force in establishing a High Arctic weather station and airfield in Greenland in 1951. That US base is now called Space Base Pituffik (formerly USAAF Base Thule).
Royal Canadian Air Force cargo planes have routinely used this airbase when re-supplying CFS Alert during the annual Operation BOXTOP.
Perhaps the most effective way to alleviate those fears which Trump is trying to stoke would be to simply provide facts and context to his wild claims.
The US does not need to invade either Panama or Greenland. Their troops are already there.
As for Canada being a bad neighbour that 'treats America poorly', we all know that simply isn't true.
