By Scott Taylor
Over the past few weeks there has been a tremendous shift in US foreign policy with regards to the war in Ukraine. The phrase 'negotiated settlement' is once again being uttered by the Biden administration as a proposed major military aid package to Ukraine has been blocked by US Congress.
In early December, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a personal appeal to US lawmakers on Capitol Hill seeking a $60+ billion (USD) emergency bailout in cash and weaponry. However the Republican Party dominated US Congress voted instead to block the deal and Zelenskyy returned to Kyiv with the comparatively paltry sum of just $250 million in mostly Pentagon-donated munition stocks.
Further crunching Ukraine's cash flow crisis is Hungarian President Victor Orban's blocking of a separate European Union aid donation valued at $50 billion Euros ($76.1 billion CAD).
Zelenskyy's government have recently warned that without an infusion of $37 billion (USD) in the coming months, they will have no option but to forfeit on the payment of civil servant salaries and pensions.
To date Canada has provided an estimated $9.5 billion (CAD) in aid to Ukraine since 2014, with the bulk of that being delivered since the Russian invasion in February 2022. In terms of donations based on a per capita or as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) basis, Canada is the leading donor to Ukraine. However the staggering amount of money that Ukraine requires to remain in the war - let alone rebuild following the conflict - is well beyond Canada's capacity to sustain on our own.
Hence, when the Biden administration suddenly stops talking 'total victory' in Ukraine and instead starts using the word 'negotiation', it clearly signifies a major shift in the outcome of the war.
In 2023, the US and NATO allies, including Canada, had put considerable combat resources and training into the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the view that a major counter offensive would drive the Russian invaders out of all Ukrainian territory. However, after months of bloody combat, the Ukrainians suffered severe casualties in exchange for very little territory regained. Even Ukraine's senior military commanders have admitted that the war is now a 'stalemate'. The new US strategy is aimed to bolster Ukraine's defensive positions in advance of any peace negotiations.
In a recent Politico story, an un-named White House official is quoted as saying "the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation. We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes."
In the early days following Putin's invasion, it was President Zelenskyy who expressed the sentiment that only negotiations would end the bloodshed. As such, Ukraine did send negotiators to meet with their Russian counterparts in Belarus and later in Antalya, Turkey. By mid-March 2022, just weeks into the war, both sides were close to reaching a fifteen point agreement.
However, following a whirlwind visit to Kyiv by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Zelensky suddenly switched his policy to nothing less than 'total victory' and negotiations were halted.
Arguably, Ukraine had a far stronger bargaining position in April 2022 than they do now. Also, if the aim of the west was to prolong the war in order to further weaken Russia militarily, then this too has apparently back-fired.
In those early days of combat, the world saw the once vaunted Russian war machine humiliatingly revealed as being nothing but a paper tiger. The invading Russian armoured columns had been shattered by sophisticated, NATO weaponry in the hands of a competent NATO trained Ukrainian military.
However in the subsequent months of fighting, the Russian military has learned from its mistakes, fired those failed commanders and put their defence industry on a war time footing. Contrary to the spring of 2022, when they were soundly defeated and routed outside the gates of Kyiv, Russia now possesses a combat capable conventional fighting force.
If the US and the EU continue to withhold the necessary funding and weaponry, and as a result Ukraine is forced to make territorial concessions at future peace talks, no doubt the people of Ukraine will feel they have betrayed by the West's false promise of limitless support.
