By Scott Taylor
Last week Canada's Minister of National Defence, Bill Blair announced that Canada will be contributing another $35 million worth of equipment and training to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Since 2014, Canada has donated over $8.5 billion in military hardware and cash to support Ukraine’s government and build the capacity of the AFU, most of that aid being delivered after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
To the average Canadian taxpayer struggling to pay a mortgage and with growing concerns over our failing health care systems, that might sound like a lot of money. However, to embattled Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this amounts to a mere pittance compared to the vast sum he requires to continue resisting the Russian invasion.
On his most recent visit to the USA to plead for funds from US Congress, Zelenskyy was hoping for $60 billion (USD) in immediate relief. Instead he returned to Kyiv having only secured a mere $250 million (USD), mostly in the form of ammunition from the US military. It is not chump change, but it is no where near what Ukraine needs to stay in the fight.
Also worthy of note from Blair's announcement was the type of equipment which Canada is giving Ukraine. The bulk of the $35 million donation will be in the form of 10 Zodiac Hurricane rigid-hull-inflatable-boats (RhIBs). Now these are excellent pieces of kit mainly used by Canada's special forces operatives for amphibious clandestine operations.
As a close observer of the war in Ukraine to date, I realize that Ukraine has launched a few raids across the Dniepr river into Russian held territory on the east bank. However these have been brief sideshows compared to the land based trench warfare slugfest of attrition taking place on the vast steppes of Ukraine or in urban battles akin to the World War 2 battle of Stalingrad.
What the AFU desperately needs is artillery ammunition, drones, combat aircraft, low level air defence systems and manpower. Canada is sending them 10 Zodiac boats instead.
To be fair, Canada has in the past donated four M777 155mm Howitzers to Ukraine along with much of our own artillery shells. We subsequently purchased 20,000 155mm howitzer shells from the US government to be delivered directly to Ukraine.
In total Canada has provided Ukraine with what seems like a whopping 40,000 heavy artillery shells thus far in the war.
However when you factor in that the conflict has been raging for almost two years and Ukraine expends on average 5,000 rounds of artillery daily, Canada has only provided 8 days worth of ammo, or 1% of the shells fired to date.
It is no longer the consideration of the cost when it comes to artillery shells. The US and NATO allies simply cannot produce enough to keep pace with the expenditure in Ukraine.
Prior to 2022, the US produced just 14,000 155 mm shells per month. That production has been doubled to 28,000 a month currently, but Ukraine needs 200,000 shells a month. You do not need a degree in mathematics to realize those numbers are not sustainable.
Also of note is the fact that in the capitalist tradition of a product's market value being based on the ratio of supply-versus -demand, due to this production shortfall, the cost per 155 mm artillery round has quadrupled from $2,000 (USD) per shell in 2022, to over $8,000 (USD) currently.
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It would seem that the US arms industry does indeed 'Stand with Ukraine'. In this case, all the way to the bank.
