Canadian and Ukrainian soldiers conduct weapons range training at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Starychi, Ukraine during Operation UNIFIER on November 25, 2015. Photo: Joint Task Force Ukraine, DND
By Scott Taylor
It has been three and a half years since Russian President Vladimir Putin did the unthinkable and formally invaded Ukraine.
It has been more than 10 years since the Maidan protests overthrew the pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, resulting in Russia's military annexation of the Crimea.
In that interim Canada has staunchly expressed support for Ukraine and soundly denounced Putin's aggression. Since 2015 Canadian military personnel have been training recruits for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). To date Canada has trained an estimated 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers, and following the withdrawal of Canadian personnel from Ukraine just prior to Putin's invasion, that training mission resumed in Britain and Poland.
Canada initially provided Ukraine with non-lethal military aid, but following the February 2022 invasion by Russia, the Canadian military began providing weapons, ammunition and combat vehicles to the AFU.
Since 2017 Canada has also forward deployed a battle group into Latvia as part of NATO's operation REASSURANCE to deter any future Russian aggression in the Baltic.
To a layperson, it might seem that Canada is doing its bit to keep Ukraine in the fight to protect its own sovereign territory. However, for close observers of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine it is obvious that the modern battlefield has evolved dramatically in the past 30 months.
In the very early days of the invasion, vast columns of Russian tanks were turned into heaps of scrap metal by the AFU. While Canada had provided Ukraine with a large number of Carl Gustav anti-tank recoilless launchers, there were few reported cases of these knocking out Russian armour.
Instead it was the FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile made by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin that soundly defeated Putin's armoured columns.
For the record, Canada does not have the FGM-148 Javelin system and the bulk of our Carl Gustav ammunition was donated to the AFU without yet being replaced.
Since those early clashes devolved into a slogging stalemate of trench warfare, it has been aerial autonomous drones that have become the queen of the battlefield in conjunction with heavy artillery. The First Person View (FPV) drones used by both sides have made troop movements a nightmare by day and night. The so called 'suicide drones' can disable armoured vehicles or bunkers with their explosive payload whereas observation drones can pinpoint targets for artillery. Yes Canada donated four of our Army's 37 M-777 155mm howitzers to the AFU along with over 40,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells.
However on the modern battlefield the M-777 is the wrong weapon system. They are a towed artillery piece, without armour protection and a crew of eight gunners. In a battle with an opponent armed with artillery and a sophisticated counter-battery capability like the Russians, the M-777 is a death trap. It cannot 'shoot and scoot' and the crew have no protection. What is needed is a modern, armoured self propelled gun system such as the BAE Archer or the KNDS Caesar guns. With their automated loaders these system have crews of just 2-4 or 3-5 respectively, and most importantly they can fire and move within 20 seconds.
As for the 40,000 artillery rounds which we donated, with the AFU firing 2,000 rounds a day that amounts to three weeks worth in a war that has been raging for 130 weeks. However, since Canada has not restocked our inventory it has left our Army with at best two days worth of ammunition for these howitzers according to former Chief of Defence Staff, General Wayne Eyre.
Canada's current capacity for the domestic production would be 5,000 rounds a month. there is a plan to add another production line but that is not expected to come to fruition until September 2025.
For the record Russia is currently producing 250,000 artillery shells per month. But I digress.
Canada has recognized the importance of employing low level air defence systems to counter drones. As such it was announced in January 2023 that Canada was spending $406 million to purchase a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) from Kongsberg. At time of writing the AFU have yet to receive this NASAM from Canada. Ditto for a second RBS 70 NG air defence system from Saab worth an estimated $227 million, which will be earmarked for the battle group in Latvia whenever it gets delivered.
For the record, Canada has not announced any acquisition of a fleet of FPV drones, despite their prominence on the battlefield in Ukraine.
What Canada did announce was a rush purchase of 90 Light Tactical Vehicles from General Motors Canada. These are essentially desert dune buggies with no ballistic protection and no protection from inclement weather.
In case no one in Ottawa has been watching, let me remind our generals that the Russian Army today is not the paper tiger that got destroyed before the gates of Kyiv in 2022. They are now battle-hardened veterans of the modern battlefield and the Russian defence sector is in full gear.
Meanwhile Canada has depleted the combat cupboard, we look to ramp up artillery shell production sometime next fall and our Battle Group in Latvia freezes their asses off in dune buggies during a cold damp Baltic winter.